Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
